Abstract
This study examined the effect of the first election on the second election in two adjacent elections via a structural estimation and a counterfactual experiment. It exploited a quasi-experimental situation in which the presidential election was held just before the local election due to the impeachment of former president Park Geun-hye in South Korea. The results showed that voting shares secured by the presidential candidate in the first presidential election had a significant influence on the outcome of the second local election. Our findings suggest that it is important for political parties and candidates facing two adjacent elections to win by large margins in the first election from a winner’s perspective and lose but fight well from a loser’s perspective.

Keywords
adjacent election, structural estimation, South Korea